With only five matches remaining in one group and six matches remaining in the other, you may expect teams to be fairly limited to their mobility at this stage in the groupstage. The truth is actually much more frustrating: most teams can still grab a top seed… but only due to factors outside of their control. Which teams have the best odds on the group stage dice? We break down what your favorite team needs to get their best possible seeding going into Day 4.

Group A

As expected before the group stage,, Group A is a bit more top-heavy, meaning the teams at the top have much less to fear and the teams at the bottom have much less to grasp.

However, there are still some interesting possibilities in this group, specifically regarding the ever important 4th/5th seed split


Neither of these squads remains within striking distance of the upper-bracket. However, both Fnatic and MVP Phoenix are facing top contenders with their final game while Na’Vi and iG face off. If Na’Vi take both games against iG, they will likely end up at least tied for the top of the lower bracket seeding with six points. If they lose both games to iG, they are guaranteed to be at best tied for last place in their group.

Fnatic is in the unfortunate dilemma of being near the back of the pack and having to play the current #1 seed to finish their tournament. Because the competition between LGD and Secret is so fierce, Fnatic can expect additional ferocity from that team. However, Fnatic also gets to play against CompLexity, a middle-of-the-pack team which is within striking distance.

If Fnatic does manage to win all their games tomorrow, they could end up in a three-way tie for third with CompLexity and Cloud (assuming CompLexity loses to Fnatic and beats Cloud 9). If they do go into this tie, they go in most likely to come out in fourth place.

However, if Fnatic lose each series outright, they will most likely end up in a three-way tie with iG and Na’Vi for the bottom three slots. Fnatic needs to take at least one game in their final day in order to guarantee they won’t come out in 8th place.

Like Fnatic, MVP Phoenix has the unfortunate task of taking out the group champion on their last day. Unlike Fnatic, MVP Phoenix has no other games to pad out that day—this is truly do or die. If they manage to pull a full series from Team Secret they will likely end up in fourth place, either outright or tied up with CompLexity.

However, like LGD vs Fnatic, the stakes for Secret are quite high in this matchup… meaning the road will be even harder than usual. MVP Phoenix needs a full sweep in order to escape the bottom bracket, and even then they still need CompLexity to lose to both C9 and Na’Vi. Because of this, it’s most likely that they will end up 6th place or a 5th – 6th tie with Fnatic.

CompLexity is also on the edge, but in a much more favorable position. For one thing, if they lose all their games tomorrow they are still unlikely to outright drop out of an upper-bracket position, though they would probably end up tied out with Fnatic for that last spot.

This is the only team whose life in the tournament is integrally tied to two series with the two teams on either side. If they manage to simply trade even in both, they’ll be guaranteed at worst a tie for an upper-bracket seat (and even that tie would require Fnatic to take
LGD undefeated).

3rd and 4th seeding are identical in terms of outcome (both are in the upper bracket without agency regarding their first opponent), so the fact that CompLexity can technically surpass C9 isn’t really terribly important… or likely.

While their third-place cushion isn’t very wide, Cloud 9 have the benefit of controlling their own destiny. The only team within a reasonable striking distance of their currently held seed is the last team they’ll place, meaning if they so much as win one game against CompLexity they’ll be guaranteed at least a tie for 3rd.

However, if Fnatic defeat CompLexity and CompLexity defeat Cloud 9 they would end up in a three-way tie for 3rd… with the loser of that tiebreaker taking 5th and a seat in the lower bracket. While this is unlikely, it emphasizes the importance of Cloud 9 taking at least one game from CompLexity to secure at least a 4th place finish.

For LGD and Secret, this really come down to which of them, if either, will fail to secure an undefeated set against a low-ranked team. LGD’s opponent is higher seeded so far, implying that they have the more difficult matchup, but MVP Phoenix is not a squad terribly familiar to Team Secret.

If LGD beat Fnatic 2-0, this means LGD will take a first place tie if Fnatic also beat CompLexity 2-0. If Fnatic does not beat CompLexity 2-0, then Secret will most likely take priority in a tie (assuming they beat MVP 2-0). If LGD and Secret tie by both splitting their series tomorrow, first place will literally come down to a coin toss between the two teams.

Group B

The fact that the last place team can still land in the upper bracket and the current penultimate team could shoot for 2nd shows just how close this group has been, especially in the mids.

EHOME vs VP may be the single most important remaining match for determining The International's main event layout!

Unfortunately, it just happens to be played at the same time as EG vs CDEC, which is the single most important remaining match for determining which team will be first in this group.

Despite the fact that MVP Hot6 have only won a single game, they are not technically out of contention for an upper-bracket seat. Technically. If MVP wins all their games, VG lose to Newbee, AND EHOME lose to CDEC then MVP, Newbee, and EHOME would be in a three-way tie for 4th, allowing MVP Hot6 a chance to play a tiebreaker series for the much-coveted upper-bracket seed.
However, much more likely MVP will end up in last. They would need to take at least one full series to tie for 7th, and winning more than that series doesn’t guarantee a climb.

The defending champions are in a similar situation to their run last year, except this year the lowest group-stage teams won’t be immediately eliminated. Due to the bulge of scores in the middle of this group, Newbee could strike out strong on their final day and actually end up in second place in their group.

For this to happen, They would need to win all their matches, EG would have to lose a full series to CDEC, and EHOME would need to take at least one game against Virtus.Pro and lose at least one game to CDEC. This would end in a two or three way tie for 2nd place between at least Newbee and EG, possibly also with Virtus.Pro or EHOME (but definitely not both).

Much more likely, Newbee could win a full series against MVP and be able to take a three-way tie for 4th place, which is still upper-bracket. This would be contested with EHOME and Empire. However, in order for Newbee to have a shot at anything in the upper-bracket, Empire must lose at least one game to MVP Hot 6… a team which has only won a single game thus far.

For Vici Gaming to stop the bleeding they need to face Newbee with strong execution, which should be easy considering they’ve won all three similar games on this patch before TI4. Team Empire is in a similar situation against MVP Hot6. Should both go undefeated against their respective opponents (a very, very likely scenario), they will end up tied… possibly for the much coveted 4th place.

If Virtus.Pro loses to EHOME, it will also be tied with VG and Empire’s max score in 4th. If EHOME loses to VP but also loses at least one game to current #1 seed CDEC, then both VG and Empire will pass them entirely. The only case where either VG or Empire can win their final series and not have a shot at 4th place is if VP splits with EHOME and then EHOME defeats CDEC, which is unlikely but not impossible.

EHOME probably has the most stressful final day of any team in either group. They’re currently tightwalking a very thin line with $200,000 difference between success and failure. While under that performance pressure, they’re scheduled to play against the #1 seed and their closest opponent: a failure to take at least one game from both opponents is likely to throw EHOME into the lower bracket.

If EHOME manages to take at least one game from each series, it’s exceedingly unlikely that they’ll end up in the lower bracket without at least a tiebreaker to defend their claim. Should EHOME step into CDEC and Virtus.Pro with singular execution, they could end up tied for first place. If they collapse to the pressure, they could end up as low as a tie for 6th – 7th with Newbee.

Day 4’s effects are largely out of Virtus.Pro’s control, as their fate largely depends on the whether or not the current losers suddenly turn their skill up to 11. Barring any weird “Newbee is suddenly second place” scenarios, Virtus.Pro is at least tied for fourth with a chance to defend before the main event.

However, if Virtus.Pro wins even one game against EHOME their third place is pretty much a sure thing. Even if Virtus.Pro doesn’t execute well tomorrow, it would require lots of top teams crumbling simultaneously for them to find themselves in trouble.

The top of Group B happens to be two teams facing each other on Day 4—it doesn’t matter if you need to take a lunch break or wake up in the middle of the night, the only excuse to miss this game is if you're watching Virtus.Pro vs EHOME instead! CDEC are guaranteed first if they just trade even with both of their opponents on the last day, while EG can take first with a 2-0 sweep of CDEC. If EG ties CDEC, they will take the priority seat by default because non-4th place ties in the group stage are determined by groupstage score starting with the record against tied opponents then working down the list as necessary.

EG could even end up tied for first with EHOME... with CDEC taking a back seat with a surprise tie to decide the group!

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Edit: Fixed a typo which had CDEC's roster listed for MVP.P and vice versa