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Author's note: any team might perform at any level--we don't know the future. However, the following is a comprehensive analysis of recent play records between teams and how each team is expected to benefit or suffer not just by their own record but also by the records of the teams in their division. Any statement regarding placement is intended as expected placement based on recent play history.
Having a good group isn't about being the best team: it's about getting the most advantage relative to your opponents regardless of your skill level.
The lowest-ranked team can be put into their optimally favorable group, and a team can get first place in their group while still taking large disadvantage from the design.The division of teams into different group stages is extremely delicate: the goal is to spread team skill out to try and prevent an unfair advantage to any specific team’s placement. This explains why the two teams with the strongest records, EG and Secret, are placed into different groups. However, it’s impossible to put teams into perfectly even groups. No ranking method is perfect, and no rank is perfectly representative of team histories against all specific opponents or situations.
For most teams, though, beating EG or Secret in group stage placement seems more or less off the table.
There are several teams in the pool for whom top four in their group is possible (or even likely) but first place doesn’t seem probable (or even realistic). For teams like Cloud 9, iG , Vici Gaming, Empire, and Virtus.Pro, the true impact of the group stages isn’t just whom they beat, but whom their opponents can’t. Which of these teams got the better group stage? To determine this we need to look at which teams they will face and which teams they won't face because of it. Also some basic principles:
RULE #1:
The best group stage is one which has a very strong teams above you and very evenly matched teams just beneath you.
In the end, you always want your team to be on one side or the other of a close rivalry because these rivalries drag on team ranks and allow for teams to pull closer from behind or farther ahead from the front.[align=center
Read more about score clumping and how it impacts teams in groups stages.
[/align]]The first lesson of group stage game theory is score bulging or clumping. Every group stage will have teams that fight very closely for ranking, usually requiring tiebreakers. This bulge could theoretically be an entire group stage if every team has about an equal skill level or if they trade with each other in a circle.
But more realistically you end up with a tail on at least one side, so teams on one end of the skill level or another end up fighting it out, while teams on either end don’t have very much competition. Teams just below this bulge that would not normally be able to reliably contest in a bracket are aided by the process. This is teams in the bulge are held more or less even, making the point gap between them and the teams immediately beneath them less extreme. It also encourages teams in the bulge to execute especially well against as many low teams as they feel they can take an easy two game swing, meaning the bulge punishes players farther beneath it (usually three or more ranks).
The way teams clump has serious impacts on the odds teams at different skill levels.
Basically, you want the bulge to exist just above or just below your targeted rank
. So if a team is realistically shooting for fourth place in a group stage, they want the first and second place teams in their group to be so much better than they are that it also punishes the teams shooting for third. This will create a favorable clumping.Top Heavy (grouping between seeds 1 and 3) group stages most benefit middle-seeding teams who are very unlikely to have gotten first or second place, anyway.
This is because if a team is going to place above you, anyway, you want to them to take as many games off of your competition as possible. A team like LGD should be cheering for Secret to go undefeated in the group stage because it means every other team they face will have fewer points.Middle-heavy (grouping between seeds 3 and 5) group stages most benefit the top team and teams on the line between an upper or lower bracket seeding.
If a group is middle-heavy, it means teams that might otherwise be stuck in a fifth or sixth seed could rise disproportionately into upper-bracket seeding with just a few victories because their opponents directly above them are being kept so close together.
This is the worst type of bulging if you are a bottom team, though, for reasons I’ll discuss in the next section.Bottom-heavy (grouping between seeds 5 and 8) are great for top teams and teams otherwise likely to place fifth.
They are also the most boring to watch because the closest matches typically seem to have no stakes. Fortunately, they aren’t very common in top-tier tournaments and neither TI group suffers from this.The figure eight bulge where there are closely ranked teams at the top and the bottom is good for anybody who doesn’t quite fit into either category
, especially teams otherwise expecting to place just below the upper bracket. This is because closely ranked teams above you will not pull too far ahead while trading each other and the closely ranked teams behind you can’t catch up for the same reason. This type of bulging can make it possible for a fifth-place team climb unexpectedly to third or fourth, lifting them out of the lower bracket.
RULE #2:
It is more important to feel confident against the teams beneath you than it is to defeat the teams close to you.
A team that trades even with rivals but wins against low-ranked teams is typically a team which earns a good seed.[align=center
Read more about beating your group, not your opponent
[/align]]It’s important to remember that to seed higher than an opponent does not require beating that opponent. A few rules to keep in mind:
- Teams get an extra point for every match they take 2:0
- Teams are not given extra punishment for losing 2-0
- Every point has the same value no matter which teams are playing, meaning that top-teams don’t give more points when defeated.
If you are relatively secure in your rank (either because your are too high or too low), losing one game or losing two games are all the same. But if you are trying to climb,
winning a full two game series against opponents is the single most effective way to do it
.A team that alternates full wins and full losses will end up with 50% more points than one that trades even the entire groupstage.
Of course, it's important to take at least one game against teams vying for the same seed.EG and VG are in the same group. VG doesn’t need to be able to defeat EG in order to take a higher seed—they just need to fare better against every other team. Because of this, the most impactful games of group stages are the matches where an underdog trades even with a top-ranked team rather than when top-ranked teams face each other.
This also means that the easiest targets take the most punishment in very mid-heavy group stages because every team realizes they can take an advantage by grabbing points from easier teams and just trading even with their rivals. A team which trades 1:1 with all close rivals will likely take their optimal seed if they simply manage to not lose against worse teams.
It really isn’t about beating the teams you want to better if you can beat everybody else
.Because of this, if you are a team with some hidden strategies specifically for the group stage, it also might benefit you to unleash these strategies first on teams you’re likely to win against anyway in order to secure that victory. Guaranteeing 2:0 wins against any team is far more valuable than maybe getting a 2:0 win over a close opponent. Opponents are not given extra punishment for losing both games, and guaranteeing a 50% increase in points from a match due to a pocket strategy puts extra pressure on opponents to perform similarly. Other games where exciting strategies are most valuable are the second-game in a series between close rivals, where unleashing a secret advantage may be valuable in preventing bonus points to protect your seed.
RULE #3:
The best group stage isn't necessarily the group stage you win, but the one which places you into a favorable main event bracket
. For some teams, this means facing their hardest opponents in the group stage and risking a lower seed so that they don't risk facing those same teams early in the main event.[h3
Read more about using group stages for the better bracket
[/h3]]Which team has a better group stage isn’t just about taking a top seed going into the main event. Often a team is better off taking a lower seed going into the main event because they faced their strongest opponents in the group stage. Why? Because
facing stronger opponents in the group stage means you won’t face them early in the main event
. If you have the harder group it means you have the easier bracket, which is a very good thing. Each round a team stays in the upper bracket adds hundreds of thousands of dollars to their winnings and greatly increases their odds of winning the Aegis.This is yet another reason you want your opponents to bulge just ahead of where you expect to place. If your team realistically plans on third place, you want the strongest opponents possible against you for groupstage seeds #1 and #2. It means that the seeds in the other group are weaker, giving better odds in the main event, as well as meaning lower-ranked teams are less likely to get points for upsetting teams above you.
RULE #3B:
There's one other reason the best group stage has the strongest teams you can beat: the stronger the teams beneath you, the less likely any lower-ranked team will slingshot a bunch of points from your opponents and surpass you.The best group stage is one in which every team except you trades even as often as possible
.[align=center
Read more about how teams get a boost from below
[/align]]If a team is expected to seed fifth or sixth into the lower bracket, they ideally want the strongest opponents possible below them. This is for two reasons:
- Firstly,
this will once again make their main bracket easier
because the teams they faced in the group stage won’t surface for at least one round. - Secondly,
if you are struggling to get out of fifth place you have nothing to lose
. The lower bracket is a Best-of-One slugfest where anything can happen and guarantees nothing. Strong opponents beneath you might just take surprise games from the team just above you. While a strong lowest-ranked team isn’t likely to climb all the way up to fourth seed, a few surprise wins can make the difference between fourth or fifth for another team.
If those same teams happen to beat you or even knock you back, that’s not a real loss because you were already headed to the lower bracket. If your team is looking at the group stages as a potential fifth place seed, you want the strongest 7th and 8th place contenders in your group.
In short, if you're having trouble getting into the upper bracket, it helps if your lowest opponents can surprise your competition, even if it puts you at risk of taking the same punishment.
So which teams have come out ahead in these group stages?
The tables with each group have the complete play record of that group for the current patch with wins in rows and losses in columns.
GROUP STAGE A
| coL | Secret | NaVi | iG | Fnatic | C9 | LGD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Secret | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| NaVi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| iG | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fnatic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| C9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| LGD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
[swap= Secret was already in a good position based purely on recent performance, but the group stages give them even more advantage moving into the main event.]
Secret: Secret is most likely to run undefeated in the group stages, especially since the next two most closely ranked teams (EG and VG) have been placed in another group. Empire, Vici Gaming, and Virtus.Pro have all taken games from Secret this patch with an above-average rate of success. However, all of these teams are in Group B. Secret have only lost two games to their Group A opponents this patch, both from iG which has less than a 10% winrate against Secret.
Normally having all of your strongest opponents in the other group is bad for your bracket, but since Secret is likely to take first place they get to set their own course, meaning it doesn't matter as much which teams are in the other group if they can opt to play the weakest option.
In addition, Secret has played more games against their opponents than any other team in either groupstage except iG. Teams with status quo advantage like Secret take additional advantage from experience against their opponents because they have a proven record of success, meaning they have no burden to experiment or take risks.
Secret was likely to move forward in a position #1 regardless, but the groupstage layout has given them an even more dominating position moving toward the main event. Even if Secret have a few rough games, they may be threatened by one seed but are unlikely to be threatened multiple positions due to the fact that his group is more competitive around then 4th to 6th seed.[/swap]
[swap= Complexity has a rough group stage ahead of them, but will at least face the lower-ranked wildcard.]
Complexity: With only 16 games on the current patch, all but three of which were during the qualifiers, Complexity doesn’t have a lot going for them. They do benefit from competing against the lower-placing wildcard team. In addition, because teams in this group are unlikely to take games off of Secret, they will be especially dedicated to beating low-ranked teams like Complexity or risk dropping seeds to teams that do.[/swap]
[swap= Because this grouping favors the teams they are trying to pass and their unfamiliarity or negative winrate against every team, this group looks bad for Na’Vi. ]
Na’Vi: Na’Vi is a definite loser in this groupstage layout. While they’ve traded 5:5 with Virtus.Pro this patch, Na’Vi have been pitted against a group of teams they either haven’t played against or haven’t won against recently. In addition, Na’Vi would have better odds in Group B which is more mid-heavy. Were they in such a group, they would be able to climb the ladder with only a few unexpected game wins instead of needing other teams to step up as well.
In addition, Na’Vi’s group will have the lower-seeded wildcard, meaning their opponents are less likely to lose matches to the wildcard thus giving Na’Vi an indirect advantage. Other teams below Na’Vi also don’t fare well in this group, including Complexity and Fnatic, so in order to climb the ladder Na’Vi will likely have to directly take many wins rather than benefitting indirectly from their opponents’ losses.[/swap]
[swap= iG’s bracket looks good thanks in part to a difficult group stage. They probably won’t seed as high in this group as they would in Group B, but this makes their main event somewhat more approachable.]
Invictus Gaming: iG are definite contenders for an upper-bracket seat, but is exceedingly unlikely to take the #1 seed regardless of which group they’re placed in. They benefit from facing some of their strongest competition in this group, including Cloud 9 (2:2 record against iG) and LGD (5:2 record against iG). Both teams are favored over iG for overall placement. Invictus Gaming has a winning record against Evil Geniuses and a closely split record against Vici Gaming and eHome. Had they been put into Group B, their position would be much better for a #2 or #3 seed. However, taking a #4 seed into Evil Geniuses at worst is actually a pretty good situation for iG’s overall bracket.
iG also has less competition from below (with Complexity, Fnatic, Na’Vi, and the lower wildcard likely fighting up from lower seeds) in this bracket based on their recent winrates against those teams or similar teams.[/swap]
[swap= Fnatic would have benefitted more from Group B and has their work cut out for them if they are going to pull into the upper bracket.]
Fnatic: Fnatic.MY has taken several hits in these group stages. Firstly, every team they’ve traded even or positive against recently (MVP, Newbee, and Virtus.Pro) is in the other group while almost every team they’ve traded negative against (Secret, iG, LGD) is in their group. As a team that is probably hoping for a fourth-place seed, Fnatic would have also benefitted greatly from having a group with a heavier top-end and a closer middle. They are not a team that is likely to worry about the wildcard team, so the fact that they will be facing the lower-placing wildcard team actually hurts them. This is a squad that will definitely be swimming upstream if they are going to land in the upper-bracket.[/swap]
[swap= Either group is about equal for Cloud 9, but at least placing in Group A means they won’t face off against Secret right away in the main event. They have a stronger history against top teams from Group B, so those are the teams they want to face in the bracket.]
Cloud 9: C9 is in an interesting spot because teams in both groups have similar records against them. However, because they are likely to land in a top 4 spot either way, C9 benefits from fighting against Secret instead of both EG and VG in the group stage. While their performance against both EG and VG has been split recently, all of Cloud 9’s major upper-mid competition will be battling it out in Group B while in Group A C9 just needs to beat teams like Complexity, Na’Vi, and Fnatic to have a really strong shot at the much coveted second place groupstage finish. Cloud 9 would much favor playing against Empire than LGD, but all things said they are in the better group for their position.[/swap]
[B]LGD[/B]: LGD are pretty even either way. As a top contender, LGD will likely take second or third in either group. Their winrates against Group A teams aren’t awful, but LGD has a proven ability to contest against all of their Chinese opponents from Group B. That being said, group B would also have several Western opponents who are either unfamiliar threats (Virtus.Pro) or proven threats (Empire with a 2:1 win record over LGD). LGD is in the better group for their chances, but will still have to perform slightly above their average if they want to secure a second-place seed.
For LGD, a lot rides on if VG finishes in the upper bracket. If iG finishes second, LGD probably wouldn't mind third or fourth because of their strong winrate against that squad.
GROUP STAGE B
| MVP | VG | Nb | VP 2 | Empire | EHOME | EG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| VG | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nb | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| VP 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Empire | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| EHOME | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| EG | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
[swap=MVP doesn’t have a great shot at strong placement regardless of group. They benefit from this group if they manage to take 1:1 trades with just about every team... a very tall order.]
[B]MVP:[/B] has only played matches on this patch against one TI team, Fnatic Malaysia. They traded 1:2 with Fnatic in our joinDOTA MLG qualifiers. They aren’t a team expected to take a top-four spot, and their ideal groupstage would have EG, Secret, and VG—all of their top-ranked opponents, to increase their odds of having low-scoring rivals for fourth place. That’s not the case: the competition for fourth place is steep in Group B and MVP will likely find themselves especially targeted as teams try to bolster their wincount with bonus points from 2:0 wins. To make matters worse, they will be playing against the top-seeded wildcard. If MVP performs fairly well, this wildcard situation could help, but more than likely it’ll just reduce MVP’s opportunities to take wins themselves.[/swap]
[swap=If LGD get third or fourth, VG wants third or fourth, too. If LGD gets second, VG wants second. If LGD doesn’t place top 4, then any top 4 placement is fine for VG. This grouping is favorable going into the main event but has complicated implications regarding placement.]
[B]VG[/B]: [B]VG[/B] did manage to dodge LGD, which has a 6:4 record against them, but they have been thrown into a group against Empire (whom has won 6:3 matches against them) and Evil Geniuses (5:1 against them). However, EG’s group stage looks fairly open which reduces the odds that VG will usurp that first-place seed.
VG is likely aiming at a second place finish without losing sight of a possible top seed. They could take a first place seed if EG trades even with a few lower-ranked teams and they could take third or fourth place if they struggle.
Whether or not this grouping is good for VG largely depends on how LGD fares in Group A. VG loses a disproportionate number of games to LGD and Empire compared to similarly ranked peers. For some reason, those teams specifically seem to fare better against VG than other teams do. Assuming Secret takes first in their group stage, they are unlikely to select] VG over teams like Empire, Virtus.Pro, or EHOME. Because of this, if third and fourth place are essentially identical to VG—either way they will likely end up facing against second place from Group A. 2nd-4th place do not get to choose their opponent, so if VG doesn’t take first they benefit from bracketing similarly to LGD from Group A. This way VG would avoid both teams for at least one full round, increasing their guaranteed prizepool and placement notably. [/swap]
[swap=If EG have any trouble they risk falling a disproportionate number of seeds. They are the definite favorites in their group, but because the groupings they will likely face off against at least one team they would prefer avoid, including iG and C9, by round 2 of the main event.]
Evil Geniuses: Evil Geniuses is taking a disadvantage being placed in Group B. Many of their opponents with whom they have mixed records (Cloud 9, Secret, and iG) are in Group A—which seems like a good thing at first glance.
However, EG would benefit from battling these teams in the group stage so that it was not possible for them the face each other early in the main event. In Secret’s place, EG would likely take first but by a smaller margin, winning based on mixed-exchanges between the other teams. Then they would have dodged every major opponent for at least two rounds in the main event. As it is, they are still very likely to place first in their group but may face up against one of their more significant opponents in the second round. In addition, the competition beneath EG is probably tighter in Group B… this means if EG struggles in even a few uncharacteristically bad games they would likely be at risk of dropping more than one seed.[/swap]
[swap=Newbee got screwed. They have no won games against this group and they will likely be a target as other teams feel pressure to bolster their scores with 2:0 wins against NB.]
Newbee: These group stages are devastating for the current champions. Every team they have won against on 6.84 is in the other group and the competition above them is going to be very close. This means that beating teams like Newbee and MVP is even more important for teams that could otherwise afford to lose individual games, such as EG. Whether or not they win two games against Newbee could very easily determine if a team moves on to the upper or lower bracket.
It’s easy to forget that Newbee are the defending champions and that they came into last year’s TI with only one won game against a Western team and a largely negative winrate against their top Chinese opponents. However, they still came in expected to perform well… this year they’re expected to perform pretty weakly.[/swap]
[swap=Team Empire could do very well in Group B, but they would probably have had an easier time in Group A. They have a difficult to parse relationship with the groups as divided, though.]
Team Empire has a complicated relationship with their bracket. For one thing, as a middle-pack team they benefit from the competition between VG and EG at the top of the bracket. Based on recent performance, they seem more likely to take games from Vici Gaming than an alternative like Cloud 9 (who has beaten them 3:0 this patch).
However, this comes with a major downside: a mixed but negative recent play record against Virtus.Pro combined with a one-off loss against EHOME this patch means Empire is caught in a shuffle which could bend either way. With the top-seeded wildcard team joining their bracket, it’s a crapshoot—that team could do well against opponents and help Empire climb or could just as easily take a game from Empire and effectively drop them an entire seed.
Unless Empire do unexpectedly well in the group stage, they run a serious risk of facing Cloud 9 or Secret to start the main event (if they make the upper bracket at all). This by itself could seriously impact Empire’s progression through the main event. Had they been placed in Group A, they could have expected to be shielded by Secret’s strong presence for a relatively comfortable fourth-place seeding. That would likely have been into Vici Gaming—a matchup in which Empire’s taken a strong advantage recently.[/swap]
[swap=Virtus.Pro can come out of the group stage swinging hard at opponents they’ve beaten recently. This matchup isn’t the most favorable possible, but VP definitely benefits from Empire’s disadvantage and how close this group should be.]
Virtus.Pro lucked out quite a bit. While their recent matches against Group A’s Na’Vi (4:4), Cloud 9 (2:3 C9’s favor), and Fnatic (1:1) have been even or negative, they have split favorably against teams in their own group stage. Since a single-game loss makes a bigger difference in a two-game series than Best of 3’s, keeping those even trading opponents for the main event is favorable.
Against teams in their group, they took their only recent game against Vici Gaming and have split favorably against Empire. While they aren’t likely to take a game from EG, VP has a clear shot at third and unlikely to drop below fourth. The Bedlam introduced by Empire, EHOME, VG, and EG all competing for top spots benefits Virtus.Pro if they perform as expected against each. This could bite them in the end or it could introduce an opportunity for them to rise to a higher seed.
Even if Virtus.Pro lands in a 3rd or 4th place seed, they are unlikely to be selected by the #1 seed from Group A (unless VG is the alternative), giving them an achievable matchup to open the main event. [/swap]
EHOME seems to be taking any advantage or major disadvantage from these groups. EHOME has a negative record against iG, C9, and Secret from Group A, so their positive records against NewBee, and one-game win against Empire imply that they are more likely to take wins in this group. If Vici Gaming comes into this group stage in old form, EHOME is in a good position to take out either Empire or Virtus.Pro. However, if VG starts losing games against both of those teams, EHOME will likely struggle to make the upper bracket.
This group does give EHOME more opportunity to place than Goup A would, but this could be a double-edged sword—this means that if EHOME does take an upper-bracket seed they will likely play against Secret in round one.
As an ending note, there is something to be said about order advantage.
I'm inclined to believe that teams that have their hard games early get a groupstage advantage because they know whether or not they need their prepared strategies early
, but having hard matches later could help depending on team psychology and preference.[i]joinDOTA's TI5 coverage is brought to you by ASUS, our official partner for the event.
[/i]
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