joinDOTA’s TI9 hero prediction guide

posted by EskayDota,
With TI round the corner, make sure you’ve got your compendium predictions looking good!

Most picked hero

Traditionally, the most picked hero at TI is a support. Last year it was Vengeful Spirit, and the year prior it was Earthshaker. One of the most consistently picked supports of the season has been Grimstroke, and with new strategies likely formulating, Grimstroke provides a lot of potential for new strategies. Just a while ago, we saw the Soulbind + Fatal Bonds combo by OG, and you can watch for yourself why Grimstroke will be amongst the most picked.

Alternatives for the most picked hero are Warlock or Centaur, being two of the most picked heroes at Epicenter.

Most banned hero

So far in all of 7.22, the most banned heroes are Chen, IO and Ember Spirit. Of the 338 Chen bans on the patch, only 3 came in the second phase, and 2 came in the final phase, with 333 bans coming in the first phase. However, at the Epicenter Major, Chen was the second most banned hero being beaten by only Sven.

Despite this, he was banned 62 times, all in the first phase. Chen seems to be the most important hero to ban, and because of that, he is our most banned hero.

The only other advisable alternative for the most banned hero is Sven. IO is usually the go-to for this category, and has a similar number of bans to Chen for the patch. However, at Epicenter, IO was largely ignored, being either picked or banned in only 46% of games, compared to Sven’s 93%, or Chen’s 78%. Chen is our choice for most banned hero.

Hero with the highest Win Rate

This category gets a bit more interesting. Heroes that are played a lot tend to lose this category to a much lesser picked hero. As the category counts the highest winrate for heroes with over 5 games, that means that a hero that is picked 7 times and wins 6 boasts a much more impressive winrate than a hero that is picked 50 times and wins 35.

Often these are heroes that are last picked for a bit of cheese. Broodmother was our first choice for this category, as teams will only tend to pick a Broodmother last and when the enemies draft doesn’t account for a possible Broodmother pick. Other heroes with just a handful of picks in 7.22 but high win %s are Meepo, Veno, Pugna and Chaos Knight.

Arc Warden also vaguely fits into the category, with four picks at Epicenter and 3 wins. We offer Broodmother as our first choice and Arc Warden as the alternative.

Hero with the highest Kill average

The heroes with the highest kill averages on 7.22 are Mirana, Arc Warden, Ursa and Morphling. Mirana makes her way on to this list with only 10 games compared to the respective 26, 24 and 106 of the remaining heroes. Again, they have to be picked in a minimum of 5 games, so it’s likely that the ones that aren’t picked too often but do get a large number of kills that might take the cake with this one.

As Mirana has only been picked 10 times on the whole patch, it’s unlikely that she’ll make the cut for this category. At Epicenter, it was Ursa, Arc Warden, Anti-Mage and Queen of Pain. Ursa was only picked twice, Arc Warden 4 times and Anti-Mage 3. Queen of Pain was picked 6 times but had a significantly worse win rate, hindering the average.

We recommend Ursa, with the alternatives as Arc Warden and Anti-Mage.

Hero with the highest Assist average

There (theoretically) should be an easy choice for this one. Zeus would make the most sense being that he essentially assists nearly every kill, and with an Aghs, it’s hard to not get an assist. His global presence makes him the obvious choice – however, he was only picked once at Epicenter, which was also a loss. If that favour continues, of which there’s no saying whether it will or won’t, he might not even be picked enough times at TI to qualify for the 5 games needed.

The first two heroes who DO fit the category are Nyx Assassin and Tusk, both with relatively high average assists at Epicenter. For the season, Zeus wins, followed by Ancient Apparition and Tusk. As a result of this, our recommendation is Tusk for most assists, alongside a risky Zeus and a less risky Dark Willow as the alternatives.

Hero with the lowest Death average

This category makes sense for slippery heroes / ones with mobility or strong defensive abilities. Heroes like Anti-Mage, Naga Siren, Lone Druid and Slark all have below 3 death averages for the entire 7.22 patch. At Epicenter, Lone Druid was picked a decent amount of times (10 games) and the lowest viable death average (the only hero beneath was Lich with 1 death in 1 game).

Our choice for this category is Lone Druid, with alternatives as Naga Siren, Gyrocopter and Anti-Mage.

Hero with the highest Last Hit average

There are only about 5 possible choices here that can consistently rack up last hits. Anti-Mage, Naga Siren, Arc Warden, Terrorblade and Medusa are all viable picks for this category. Arc Warden’s ability to fight and farm, or push lanes and be safe simultaneously gives him the edge in this category. With a Last Hit average of 606 at Epicenter compared to a patch winner of 510 for Anti-Mage, Arc Warden becomes the strongest contender for this category.

Alternatives include Naga Siren and Anti-Mage.

Hero with the highest XPM average

The winner of this category is also likely to be one of the harder carries in the game. Anti-Mage, Broodmother and Meepo all power level particularly quickly. Both charts for 7.22 and Epicenter show Anti-Mage first, Broodmother second and Meepo third in the XPM boards. For this reason, Anti-Mage is our first choice, and Broodmother and Meepo are our alternatives.

Hero with the most Kills in a game

At Epicenter, Miracle had the most kills in a game with Anti-Mage (19 kills). He also took third place with Weaver with 16 kills, although second and fourth place go to different Morphling players, Paparazi and miCKe. Weaver makes it into the top 4, but realistically it’ll be between Morphling and Anti-Mage.

Taking a look at the average game lengths of matches at Epicenter with either a Morphling or an Anti-Mage, Morphling games on average lasted 3 minutes longer than the small sample of Anti-Mage games available. For this reason, we have selected Morphling as our most kills in a single game, with Anti-Mage a very close second. Both choices are as viable as each other.

Hero with the most Last Hits in a game

Lastly, this one is of course going to be similar to the average last hits in terms of likely contenders. We’ve chosen Naga Siren for this category, as generally, Naga Siren have a tendency / the potential to go on for a lot longer than Anti-Mage games. Whilst Naga Siren farms slower than an Anti-Mage does, that lends itself to having to get more last hits to push an advantage.

Other viable alternatives are Anti-Mage, Arc Warden or Terrorblade.

Our final predictions

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