posted by Abelle,
The lines have crossed, but does this mean doom and gloom for our beloved game, or is it just a case of growing pains?


Well, here we are. Almost 48 days since The International 2017 Battle Pass was released, and an event the Dota 2 community has been dreading for years has finally occurred – the lines have crossed, specifically, the prize pool growth compared to the previous year has dropped below that of the previous year.

Technically, this is not the first time that it’s happened. Way back on Day 1 of the Battle Pass, the initial growth didn’t quite reach the rate that last year’s Battle Pass hit, and the TI7 prize pool dipped slightly below TI6. However, the rate quickly picked up to surpass last year’s and that blue line has stayed above the red one ever since.

Until today. With little impetus to inspire a burst of growth, the prize pool has fallen behind. Last year, Valve released a Battle Level Bundle. Despite being limited to one purchase per customer, the bundle gave the TI6 prize pool the biggest spike since the initial release of the Battle Pass.

Let’s talk numbers



Look at it this way. After today, the Battle Pass will have been out for 48 days. The International 2016 Battle Pass was available for a total of 89 days, but we’ll have 53 more days until this year’s cut-off for Battle Pass sales on August 13th.

That means the TI7 Battle Pass will be on sale for 101 days, or 12 days longer than last year. With a potential Battle Pass bundle (which could be included in the upcoming Steam Summer Sale) and Immortal III yet to be revealed, the prize pool will get at least another couple bumps. When all is said and done, we should sit comfortably near, if not above, last year’s record prize pool of $20.7 million

Click to enlarge image


What does this really mean, though? Is Dota 2 on the decline because we have “just” a $16.1 million prize pool on day 47 vs last year’s $16.2 million?

Hardly. Dota might be facing some challenges, but not because of how well Battle Pass points are selling.

TL;DR, The Dota 2 community for the next 53 days:



It’s pretty realistic to expect that the once explosive growth we experienced with that The International prize pool will slow down as the playerbase also plateaus (the number of people playing Dota 2 also had some explosive growth from 2012 to 2015).

If we’re trying to say that the game has died when the community has, in the last 47 days, poured over $58 million USD into it, we’re not really thinking straight.

We should be more concerned with the fact that the money in the Dota 2 esports ecosystem is highly concentrated in these Valve events, meaning only a few select teams will ever be able to take advantage of the money fans put into the game.

Without some of that money being funnelled down into the lower levels of the game, there’s less incentive and support much for someone to dedicate their time and effort into breaking into the scene.

If Dota 2 is dying, it's not because the TI prize pool isn’t big enough.

Graph via Cyborgmatt's Prize Pool tracker website.

  • Abelle
    Abelle

    Abelle

    Annabelle Fischer
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